October bump short lived - November home sales fall

Posted by Justin Havre. on Thursday, December 1st, 2016 at 3:24pm.

To those who follow real estate market trends, you will remember that October was the month at CMHC put new mortgage lending rules in place.  The semi-panic resulted in a small spike in home sales activity.  That is, a spike for 2016 which has been a year of slower sales and falling prices.

Now that the days are darker and snow flurries may be here to stay, Calgary’s real estate market has returned to the year-long trend.   Last month, 1,227 properties sold in Calgary which is 3% fewer properties than what sold in November 2015 and 17% below the long-term picture.

Calgary Real Estate Board chief economist and spokeswoman Ann-Marie Lurie said in her monthly report that any gains reported in November of this year were temporary due to the urgency created by CMHC’s new stress-test guidelines.  Home buyers that were fearful that the harsher guidelines for borrowing might price them out of the market and jumped in to purchase before the rules took effect in late October 2016.

Last month there were fewer listings taken on the MLS® system in Calgary however, even fewer sales upped the amount of supply we have in the city.   With homes taking longer to sell now, the benchmark price in Calgary shrunk as well.   Across the city, the benchmark price totalled $436,000 last month which is actually a decline of just 0.6% from October however, it is 4.1% lower than the benchmark price in November 2015.

One of the most dramatic shifts to occur last month was the benchmark price for single-family homes.  For the first time in nearly three years, the benchmark fell below half a million dollars, coming in at $498,300 last month.  Not great news for current sellers of detached homes in terms of dollar amounts, but not completely devastating because the single-family market is doing much better than homes in high density, multi-family developments.  New construction that’s ready for occupancy is wreaking some havoc in this sector of the market.

Single-family sales have fallen since the beginning of this year by 3% over the same time period last year, however as 2016 draw to a close there have been some modest gains due in part to the sale of luxury homes in the city.  High-end homes are moving well, relatively speaking, because sellers have been offering deeper discounts.

CREB® president Cliff Stevenson reiterate his message of prior months this year, stressing the importance of buyers doing their research and to keep asking questions about the state of the market their specific neighbourhoods.

Stevenson said that examining average prices and benchmark prices gives the seller an overall picture of the market in Calgary, but there have been pockets of good activity in select communities and people need to keep in touch with their real estate professional about the dynamics of their own areas.  He said it’s important for sellers and buyers to have reasonable expectations.

CALGARY HOUSING MARKET STATISTICS:  November 2016

Source: Calgary Real Estate Board

Nov 2016 YTY Comparative Analysis 

COMBINED CALGARY RESIDENTIAL SALES

Sales:  1,277 (-2.77%)

New Listings:  1,985 (-8.99%)

Active Listings (Inventory):  4,975 (-6.48%)

Median Sale Price: $427,000 (+ 4.00%)

Average Sale Price: $485,395 (+5.22%) 

CALGARY DETACHED HOME

Sales:   777 (-2.63%)

New Listings:  1,062 (-10.23%)

Current # of Listings:  2,322 (-13.36%)

Average Days on Market:  45 (+5.18%)

Median Sale Price:  $485,000 (+4.30%)

Average Sale Price:  $558,375 (+6.52%)

YTD Median Price:  $479,000 (-0.21%) 

CALGARY METRO APARTMENT/CONDO STATS

Sales: 195 (0.0%)

New Listings:  455 (-6.95%)

Current # of Listings: 1,430 (+5.69%)

Average Days on Market: 58 (+16.02%)

Median Sale Price:  $255,000 (-6.42%)

Average Sale Price: $297,710 (-0.72%)

YTD Median Price: $269,900 (-1.14%)

CALGARY METRO ATTACHED STATS

Sales: 255 (-5.20%)

New Listings:  468 (-8.06%)

Current # of Listings: 1,223 (-4.97%)

Average Days on Market: 59 (+20.86%)

Median Sale Price:  $345,000 (+1.47%)

Average Sale Price: $406,547 (+3.79%)

YTD Median Price: $342,500 (-1.44%)

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