November Report: Calgary home market grows weaker

Posted by Justin Havre. on Tuesday, December 1st, 2015 at 12:29pm.

Prices continue downward trend

It's official: it's a buyer's market in Calgary.

Last month, inventory levels remained stubbornly high and sales continue to slide in the resale segment of Calgary's less-than-vibrant residential housing market.

The Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®) reports that the home market continues to react to job losses in the oil and gas sector, wage rollbacks and public expectations regarding economic recovery.

In looking at the stats, it's an especially terrible time to sell an apartment-style condominium but perhaps a great time to buy. There is almost seven months' supply of apartment condos on the market in Calgary.

The Breakdown

Sales in November came in at 1,263 units which is 28% less than November 2014 and almost 20% under the average recorded over the past decade. Conversely, the number of newly listed units in Calgary went up by 5% over November 2014 and 5% higher than the same decade.

Up until November, the Calgary market was holding steady at just under four month's supply of inventory. However, last month a soft market and elevated inventory caused inventory to spike above the four-month supply mark.

It's not completely doom-and-gloom for the city of Calgary. When putting current market conditions into perspective, the current high level of residential inventory is still well below what the city experienced during the last downturn in 2008. Inventory is 27% below November of that year and price declines have not been as sharp.

The unadjusted benchmark price last month only fell by .5% from the month previous. At $450,700, this price is only 2% down from November 2014.

Single-family detached units performed the best last month, as the total supply of detached homes went up to just 3.4 months. The unadjusted benchmark price in this market segment fell by .6% from the month previous or 1.52% from November 2014.

Looking at attached units, the number of month's supply shot up to 4.8. The unadjusted benchmark price was still in line with other housing segments, dropping .5% from October and 1.5 from November 2014 to $352,400.

Apartment condominium sales continue to suffer in the last quarter of the year. Last month, inventory rose to 6.9 month's supply. Benchmark prices slid to $287,000; however this is still a 0.5% drop over the previous month which is in line with all over residential segments. The big different is that year-over-year, prices are down 4.6% which is more than triple that other unit types.

Observations

Interesting that absorption rates have been weaker throughout most of 2015, yet benchmark prices are just beginning to come down according to (CREB®) statistics. This anomaly is due to the luxury end of Calgary's housing market which has skewed the average and median housing prices on the higher side.

In its monthly statistics report, CREB® stated that Calgary is experiencing a challenging market and given today's circumstances sellers and their contracted real estate agents need greater "market intelligence."

CALGARY HOUSING MARKET STATISTICS: November 2015

Source: Calgary Real Estate Board

November 2015 YTY Comparative Analysis

COMBINED CALGARY RESIDENTIAL SALES

Sales: 1,263 (-28.68%)

New Listings: 2,189 (+4.66%)

Active Listings (Inventory): 5,316 (+ 31%)

Median Sale Price: $410,149 (- 4.24%)

Average Sale Price: $460,859 (-5.08%)

CALGARY DETACHED HOME

Sales: 799 (-22.65%)

New Listings: 1,185 (+5.24%)

Current # of Listings: 2,680 (+24.19%)

Average Days on Market: 43 (+12.96%)

Median Sale Price: $465,000 (-3.88%)

Average Sale Price: $523,430 (-7.24%)

YTD Median Price: $480,000 (- $1.64%)

CALGARY METRO APARTMENT/CONDO STATS

Sales: 195 (-40.37%)

New Listings: 489 (+2.73%)

Current # of Listings: 1,349 (+29.59%)

Average Days on Market: 50 (+20.06%)

Median Sale Price: $272,500 (-6.03%)

Average Sale Price: $299,850 (-6.83%)

YTD Median Price: $273,000 (- 4.21%)

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