Average up, median down: sales slump 20 months and counting

Posted by Justin Havre. on Wednesday, August 3rd, 2016 at 11:39am.

The rain in July wasn’t the only thing coming down.  Sales in Calgary’s residential housing market fell by 12.6 % over July 2015 levels, a year-over-year decrease for the 20th month in a row.

In keeping with the recession, the City of Calgary also reports a slump in net migration, meaning growth equals the number of people leaving.  To this point, most people have been leaving rental units but as fall comes the picture could change.

Last month, 1,741 homes were sold and at the same time, the number of new listings hitting the market fell.  According to the Calgary Real Estate Board in its monthly report, the lack of inventory overload at this time is a factor in preventing benchmark prices in Calgary from falling any further.  There were 551 more residential units on the market last month than there were in July 2015.

As it stands, the benchmark for July was $429,000 – very close to June 2016 – but 4.2% less than July 2015 numbers.  The average price oddly enough rose by 1.8% from July 2015 however that statistic is skewed by the number of luxury homes that sold last month.  There were 15 higher end homes priced in excess of $1.5 million compared to last summer when there were 9.

Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB® primary analyst and chief economist weighed in and said the demand for homes in Calgary is less because of two reasons; the number of people out of work keeps increasing and more people are leaving the city.  Single-family homes continue to see some price stability while apartment condos are suffering with sales dropping 21.6% compared to this time last year.

Benchmark Breakdown

The high number of apartment units on the market mean prices are falling as sellers try to shift properties. The $277,000 benchmark price for condominiums in Calgary fell just .4% over June but is down 6.6% from July 2015.

Single-family homes across Calgary came in at the benchmark price of $502,300 last month – not a huge change from June but 3.4% below the benchmark set in July 2015.

Semi-detached and row/townhouse benchmarks also fell by as much as 5.5% over July 2015.

CREB® president Cliff Stevenson said in the monthly report that July’s activity comes as no surprise to anyone.  In fact, buyers are likely watching what properties are selling for, expecting prices to fall more.  He noted that once sellers adjust their prices even more there will likely be an increase in activity. 

CALGARY HOUSING MARKET STATISTICS:  July 2016

Source: Calgary Real Estate Board

July YTY Comparative Analysis 

COMBINED CALGARY RESIDENTIAL SALES

Sales:  1,741 (-12.56%)

New Listings:  2,683 (-10.21%)

Active Listings (Inventory):  5,985 (+ 10.73%)

Median Sale Price: $429,000 (-1.38%)

Average Sale Price: $484,998 (+1.78%)

 CALGARY DETACHED HOME

Sales:  1,108 (-9.18%)

New Listings:  1,489(-13.98%)

Current # of Listings:  2,727 (-0.91%)

Average Days on Market:  43 (+16.22%)

Median Sale Price:  $480,000 (-1.84%)

Average Sale Price:  $541,732 (-0.01%)

YTD Median Price:  $480,000 (-0.62%) 

CALGARY METRO APARTMENT/CONDO STATS

Sales: 254 (– 21.60%)

New Listings:  617 (-6.01%)

Current # of Listings: 1,554 (+24.82%)

Average Days on Market:  57(+19.54%)

Median Sale Price:  $269,950 (-5.11%)

Average Sale Price: $352,185 (+13.01%)

YTD Median Price: $272,000 (-1.09%)

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