Market Watch - July 2011 Canadian Home Sales Stable in June

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Market Watch - July 2011 Canadian Home Sales Stable in June

Posted by Justin Havre on Tuesday, July 12th, 2011 at 4:09pm.

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According to statistics released by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), national resale housing activity remained stable in June. Sales activity held steady from April to June, but posted the first year-over-year gain in over a year due to falling demand in May 2010.

Year-to-date sales are in line with the ten-year average, and new listings remained stable. The national housing market remains firmly entrenched in balanced territory. The national average price is still being skewed upward by historically high sales activity in certain neighbourhoods across the country.

“The Canadian housing market has seen some big ups and downs in recent years, making national sales activity so far this year look like something of a Goldilocks story by comparison – not too hot, not too cold,” said Gary Morse, CREA’s President. “Since local housing market trends often differ from national trends, buyers and sellers should consult their local REALTOR® to understand how the housing market is shaping up where they live.”

With sales and new listings holding steady on a national basis, the resale housing market remained firmly planted in balanced territory. The national sales-to-new listings ratio, a measure of market balance, stood at 52.1%.

A number of compositional factors skewed the national average price upward. These factors include historically high sales activity in selected pricey Vancouver neighbourhoods and broadly based price gains in Toronto, where supply remains tight relative to demand. If Vancouver sales are excluded from the calculation, the year-over-year change in the national average price amounts to 5.6%; excluding Toronto and Vancouver shrinks the increase to 3.7%.

Ontario –Toronto sales and average price up in June

Toronto, July 6, 2011 - Greater Toronto REALTORS® reported 10,230 home sales through the MLS® system in June 2011 – up 21% compared to June 2010. This number represented the third best June result on record behind 2007 and 2009. The number of transactions during the first six months of 2011 amounted to 48,189 – down by 4.5% compared to the first half of 2010.

“The strong June result capped off an interesting first half of 2011,” said Toronto Real Estate Board President Richard Silver. “The pace of sales was a bit sluggish at the beginning of the year, but rebounded in May and June. Because of the positive affordability picture, home buyers remained confident in their ability to purchase and pay for a home over the long term.”

The average price for June transactions was $476,371 – a 9.5% increase over June 2010. Through the first six months of the year, the average selling price was $467,169 – almost an 8% increase compared to the same period in 2010.

“While sales have been strong, we would be on track for a record number of transactions in 2011 if not for the decline in listings so far this year,” said Jason Mercer, the Toronto Real Estate Board's Senior Manager of Market Analysis. “Tight supply meant more competition between home buyers and an accelerating annual rate of price growth in the second quarter.”

“Home owners will likely react to the stronger price growth by listing their homes in greater numbers. A better supplied market would result in more moderate price increases," continued Mercer. The median price was $405,000, up from the $367,750 recorded during June of 2010.

Ottawa, July 6, 2011 - Members of the Ottawa Real Estate Board sold 1,712 residential properties in June through the Board’s Multiple Listing Service® system compared with 1,543 in June 2010, an increase of 11%. The five-year average for June sales is 1,695.

Of those sales, 378 were in the condominium property class, while 1,334 were in the residential property class.

“It’s obvious that the dream of home ownership is alive and well in Ottawa, with solid sales numbers like these. First-time buyers are out in the market in a big way, due to continued low interest rates, and after last year’s HST-affected spring, we’re seeing a return to what the June resale market usually looks like in Ottawa,” said Board President Joanne Tibbles.

The average sale price of residential properties, including condominiums, sold in June in the Ottawa area was $353,560, an increase of 8% over June 2010. The average sale price for a condominium-class property was $275,996, an increase of 9.6% over June 2010. The average sale price of a residential-class property was $375,539, an increase of 7.3% over June 2010. The Board cautions that average sale price information can be useful in establishing trends over time but should not be used as an indicator that specific properties have increased or decreased in value. The average sale price is calculated based on the total dollar volume of all properties sold.

British Columbia – Home sales to rise 5% this year

Vancouver, June 30, 2011 - The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its 2011 Second Quarter Housing Forecast today.

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to increase 5% from 74,640 units in 2010 to 78,200 units this year, before increasing a further 3.1% to 80,700 units in 2012.
“Home sales will post some modest gains over the next two years,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “However, positive housing fundamentals like job growth, rising wages and an expanding population base will be somewhat offset by higher borrowing costs over the next eighteen months.”

“Following a decade where unit sales broke all records, consumer demand over the next few years will be relatively moderate,” added Muir. The ten-year BC MLS® residential sales average is 87,000 units. A record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.

Alberta – Condo and home sales find their footing

Calgary, July 4, 2011 – According to figures released today by the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB®), residential sales surged in the month of June 2011 to 1,979 units. While this indicates a third more sales than June 2010, the year-to-date increase proved a moderate 2%. Strong monthly increases do not imply a housing boom, as it is important to put into perspective that sales activity remains below long term averages. While the single family market has shown signs of improvement throughout the first half of this year, this is the first time since April 2010 that condominium sales have recorded a year-over-year increase.

“Improved housing demand is being fueled by a younger demographic and, with the affordability of homes in Calgary, we are continuing to see young Calgarians pursue ownership over rentals,” says Sano Stante, president of CREB®.

“Historically, Calgary’s average family income has been higher than the national average and a younger more mobile demographic has been attracted to good paying professional jobs in Calgary. As the economy continues to build momentum, we expect this same trend will support a balanced and healthy housing market in the second half of 2011 and into 2012.”

With 581 sales for the month of June 2011, the condominium market improved by 31% over June of 2010, however year-to-date figures show a 5% decrease over the same period last year.
“Condo sales bounced back this month, and we now have less than four months of supply on the market. Stronger condo sales, combined with a decline in inventory, will lend more balance to this market in the months to come,” says Stante.

After the first half of the year, average prices of condominiums are still slightly lower than levels recorded last year, as more buyers bought condominiums under $200,000 in 2011 compared to 2010 for the same period.

The single family market recorded 1,398 sales in the month of June 2011. This is an increase of 32% when compared to June 2010 when 1,059 single family homes sold in the city of Calgary. With a total of 7,231 sales after the first half of the year, year-to-date single family sales are 6% higher than last year.

“While new listings are still lower than levels recorded last year, the rate of decline has eased. With the market shifting to more balanced conditions in recent months, sellers are feeling more confident to list their home. Overall our absorption rate has remained relatively stable, staving off any significant rise in prices,” says Stante.

Year-to-date average price of a single family home in Calgary is $472,330, while the median price is $410,000, virtually unchanged over levels recorded in the previous year. The distribution of sales by price range has not shown any significant shift compared to last year, pointing to continued stability in the market.

Improved job prospects, combined with an increase in the number of people moving to Calgary, will give lift to our housing market for the remainder of this year and into the next year,” says Stante.


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